Contributor - Middle East

Peter Shaw-Smith

As they went about weekend outdoor pursuits on February 28, only to sense distant but almost palpable explosions thudding ominously through afternoon skies, few Dubai residents immediately understood that the Persian Gulf was suddenly, once again, at war.
One month later, there was no clear end in sight. By early April, President Trump hinted that the war may end in “two to three weeks,” but the unpredictability of Middle East geopolitics may mean that the decision is not entirely his to make. Anxious to secure food supplies and oil deliveries, the UAE threatened to join the war to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian retaliation to U.S.-Israeli bombing has led to serious incidents, including a drone attack on Dubai International Airport (OMDB) on March 7 that briefly halted operations. Demands for private evacuation and rescue charters spiked after missile activity repeatedly interrupted state-organized repatriation flights.
A March 18 attack on Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG processing hub caused extensive damage, leaving around 17% of capacity impaired, with repairs likely to take three to five years.
Iranian missile attacks in late March on airports in Kuwait and Iraq, and a strike on a U.S. airbase in Saudi Arabia, underlined the danger to aircraft, even on the ground. Yet commercial aviation came back to near full operations: Cirium data issued on March 27 showed only 13% of regional scheduled flights were cancelled or no-fly at the time.
Since the start of the war, UAE air defenses have engaged more than 430 ballistic and 20 cruise missiles, and 2,000 UAVs. News agency WAM said two Emirati soldiers and a Moroccan contracted to the armed forces have been killed, along with nine civilian fatalities. Some 190 non-Emiratis have suffered various injuries.
<h2>Evolving Advisories</h2>
Hany Bakr, senior v-p, aviation and maritime security for MedAire in Cairo, said business aviation operators were contending with rapidly changing notams, evolving conflict zone advisories, and short-notice airspace closures and restrictions, which significantly complicated flight planning.
“The dominant drivers behind the risks within the region are airspace volatilities and unpredictability, rather than a single fixed threat,” he told AIN.
Flights have been facing longer routings, increased fuel loads, crew duty limitations, and insurance constraints. Collective flight crew resistance to operating certain flights, beyond acceptable risk thresholds, is leading to postponement and disruption.
Eric Schouten, CEO of Dyami Security Intelligence, said Qatar, the UAE, and Bahrain remained areas of most concern for business aviation operations. Threats involve Iran trying to hit either tourist areas or business centers hosting banks or American companies, military or air bases, ports, and embassies.
“Iran still has a huge amount of ballistic missiles and drone capabilities,” he told AIN. “They only have to send one out once or twice a day to disrupt.”
<h2>Movements Fall Sharply</h2>
WingX Advance estimated a fall of 41% in Middle East business jet departures in late March, with a 14% year-to-date decline.
Argus International data shared with AIN on business jet activity showed Middle East month-on-month movements down 58% in March vs February 2026, while the year-on-year figure for March 2026 versus March 2025 fell 55%.
“Normally the top country, UAE activity is down 81% monthly and 75% yearly,” Travis Kuhn, senior v-p, software, said. “The only countries to increase year-over-year activity are Egypt, Oman, and Syria.”
U.S. fractional operator Flexjet, which won a license to operate domestic flights in Saudi Arabia in December, has suspended activity until further notice to most Middle East destinations except Cyprus, Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.
“Until Flexjet determines airspace, or conditions on the ground, meet a threshold of safety that is in alignment with our rigorous standards, we proceed with self-imposed operational restrictions,” a Flexjet spokesman told AIN.
<h2>Situation Stabilizes</h2>
Dumani Ndebele, regional FBO director, ExecuJet Middle East, said that earlier in March, many business aviation operators’ flights were positioning in for charters. “There were very heavy movements during the first two weeks,” he told AIN. “Things have now stabilized. We’re now seeing a softening in traffic, given the uncertainty of the situation, but a lot of our Middle East-based clients are still in-region, and our hangar is full.”
Mohammed Husary, executive president of UAS International Trip Support, said business aviation remained crucial to Middle East governments, NGOs, and commercial entities.
“We are seeing operators, service providers, and suppliers demonstrate remarkable agility and foresight, adjusting flight plans, strengthening risk management, and leveraging real-time intelligence to ensure the well-being of crew and passengers alike,” he told AIN.
<h2>Fuel Costs Double</h2>
IATA’s Jet Fuel Price Monitor quoted the average weekly price of fuel at $195.19 per barrel for the week ending March 27, a measure which was down 1% on the prior week, but up 104% on the prior month. Platts Global Index New York on April 1 stood at $198.90 a barrel.
WingX Advance said on April 2 that U.S. jet fuel prices have more than doubled since the start of March, with jet fuel hitting $1,710 per tonne at the end of the month, compared with just $742 a year ago, a 130% increase.
Vito Gomes, CEO, Aviation Services Management, Dubai, said it was difficult to predict the outlook for fuel prices in the region. “It all depends on the crisis in the Hormuz area, where there are issues with shipping the product,” he told AIN.
If the situation escalates further, supplies will need to be made available for transport from outside the Gulf, especially to serve the Asian and Middle East markets.
“Quite a lot has happened since February 28,” Ndebele said. “Initially, there was the airspace closure [in the first week of the crisis]; at that time, all of our operations pretty much came to a halt. It was more about recalibrating—liaising with airport authorities and the General Civil Aviation Authority (GCAA), to find out what was going on.”
He expects to see some type of stability as long as there is market certainty, allowing charter and people to come in and out. “The majority of our clients are actually based here in the region and have aircraft,” he said. “We expect that side of our business to continue as normal.”
<h2>Prolonged Conflict</h2>
Vista’s chief operating officer, Nick van der Meer, said operations remain highly constrained due to airspace restrictions, security concerns, and operational uncertainty.
“A prolonged conflict would likely impact demand and operations, though the sector remains adaptable,” he told AIN. “More generally, this remains a dynamic situation, and we are closely monitoring developments while prioritising safety and operational integrity.”
Before the war broke out, Universal Weather and Aviation planned to launch FBOs in Riyadh, Jeddah, and Dammam within months. It said that the strategy remained in place.
“We recognize that a prolonged conflict could impact flight activity levels in the near term, and that traffic at opening may be lower than originally forecast,” John Hewett, regional v-p, EMEA, told AIN. “That said, it does not change our commitment to bringing these locations online and commencing operations in Saudi Arabia.”
Mohammed Al Bokhari, CEO, Aviation Horizons, Jeddah, bemoaned a litany of problems in Egypt, Lebanon, and Syria, from the pandemic and the 12-Day War with Iran to now, another war. “Every time we say, ‘Okay, things will stabilize,’ something new comes up,” he told AIN.
The Middle East is heading in a direction that no one can predict, and unless the situation stabilizes, planning is difficult. “This war will change a lot of things in the future, politically,” he said. “The Middle East will not recover for at least another three months [after the war ends], just for people to understand what’s really coming up.”

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