Writer

Amy Wilder

As the pace of large rocket launches from Texas and Florida is poised to increase, airline operators and air traffic managers are paying closer attention to how those launches intersect with operations over the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean. That focus sharpened as SpaceX sought approval for higher-frequency Starship operations from Florida’s Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Space Force Station (CCSFS) late last year, adding to ongoing launch activity from Boca Chica in south Texas.
With plans advancing to launch Starship from Florida as early as mid-2026, environmental impact statements for proposed sites at KSC and CCSFS outline substantial airspace closures tied to both launch and reentry operations. According to the analyses, launch windows could close Atlantic airspace for 40 minutes to two hours, affecting routes over the U.S., Atlantic, and Caribbean, with 133 to 400 aircraft potentially impacted during peak periods.
Reentry operations are also expected to be disruptive, following west-to-east trajectories similar to space shuttle landings that could shut down southbound domestic and international traffic into major Florida airports, including Orlando, Tampa, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, and Miami, as well as airspace over Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean.
Those projected impacts have prompted formal concern from Airports Council International-North America (ACI-NA), which <a href="https://www.regulations.gov/comment/FAA-2024-1395-0315">submitted comments</a> on the <a href="https://www.regulations.gov/document/FAA-2024-1395-0075">Kennedy Space Center Draft EIS</a>, citing FAA delay assumptions. ACI-NA estimated that proposed Starship operations could affect between 900,000 and 2.3 million commercial air passengers annually, resulting in 600,000 to 3.2 million hours of cumulative delay and economic costs ranging from $80 million to $350 million per year.
In its filing, ACI-NA senior v-p of safety and regulatory affairs Christopher Oswald also questioned whether air traffic management measures such as ground stops, miles-in-trail restrictions, and dynamic reroutes can scale safely and practically as launch frequency increases, urging additional review and stakeholder engagement as commercial space operations expand into heavily traveled airspace.
<h2>Rocket Breakups Increase Risk, Airspace Disruptions</h2>
The spotlight is shining more heavily on launch activity after three rocket breakups affected air traffic and attracted public attention:&nbsp;
• Jan. 16, 2025.&nbsp;A Starship vehicle launched from Starbase, Texas, broke up in-flight during ascent. The FAA&nbsp; required and oversaw a mishap investigation, citing debris generation and subsequent airspace management actions.
• March 6, 2025.&nbsp;A Starship during a launch attempt from Texas failed and broke apart during ascent, prompting additional airspace restrictions and contributing to FAA requirements for revised flight safety analysis and expanded hazard areas.
• May 27, 2025. Starship Flight 9 launched from Starbase and broke apart during the reentry phase. The FAA activated a debris response area and later required SpaceX to conduct a mishap investigation, though the agency stated that debris remained within designated hazard areas.
Even when everything goes as planned, there’s an impact on air traffic in proximity to rocket launches. These launches have long required temporary airspace closures, but Starship’s scale and energy profile have expanded both the size and geographic reach of those closures.
For operators, the challenge is not limited to planning around scheduled launch windows. Greater complexity arises during off-nominal events like those in 2025, when debris response areas must be activated and aircraft already airborne may need to be rerouted, held, or diverted in real time.
FAA records from 2025 show that even when debris remains within preplanned hazard areas, launch anomalies can still produce measurable airline impacts, including diversions and airborne holds.
Investigative reporting by <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/spacex-faa-launch-airlines-safety-explosions-florida-caribbean">ProPublica</a> and <a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/airlines/the-spacex-explosion-that-put-flights-in-danger-016a79c0">The Wall Street Journal</a> late last year described airline concerns, particularly over Florida and Caribbean routes that carry dense traffic. <a href="https://x.com/SpaceX/status/2002579647066710164?s=20">SpaceX has rejected</a> suggestions that airline safety has been compromised, stating publicly that aircraft are routed around conservatively-sized hazard areas and that no aircraft have been put at risk.
FAA statements, while stopping short of that categorical language, describe an airspace management framework built around probabilistic risk modeling, expanded hazard areas, and coordination with domestic and international aviation authorities.
Those airspace implications are now also being examined by airport operators. In comments submitted to the FAA’s Draft Environmental Impact Statement for proposed Starship-Super Heavy operations at Launch Complex 39A, ACI-NA said the FAA’s analysis points to substantial systemwide airline disruption.
Using delay assumptions published in the <a href="https://www.regulations.gov/document/FAA-2024-1395-0075">Draft EIS</a>, ACI-NA calculated that the 44 annual Starship launch, booster recovery, and reentry events analyzed would affect between 12,000 and 23,000 commercial aircraft operations per year, with delays ranging from 40 to 120 minutes per flight. From those figures, the group estimated that between 900,000 and 2.3 million passengers annually would experience a collective 600,000 to 3.2 million hours of delay.
Applying airline delay cost data from Airlines for America, ACI-NA’s Oswald&nbsp;<a href="https://www.regulations.gov/comment/FAA-2024-1395-0315">wrote,</a> “The costs of delays and disruptions associated with the proposed Starship operations would range between $80 million and $350 million annually,” adding that the estimates should be considered conservative.
Oswald also questioned whether existing air traffic control mitigation techniques can scale as launch frequency increases, stating, “We believe the safety and practicality of using air traffic control initiatives such as ground stops, use of miles-in-trail restrictions, dynamic reroutes, and other air traffic management techniques requires additional review and stakeholder engagement.”
FAA records show the agency has responded to recent Starship mishaps by expanding aircraft hazard areas, adjusting launch timing to avoid peak airline flows, and coordinating with international aviation authorities as closures extend beyond U.S. airspace.&nbsp;
In a Safety Alert for Operators (SAFO) issued January 8, the FAA formally warned air carriers and flight crews to expect increasing airspace disruption tied to space launch activity, including the potential for debris-generating mishaps. The <a href="https://www.faa.gov/other_visit/aviation_industry/airline_operators/airline_safety/safo/all_safos/SAFO26001.pdf">SAFO states that</a> “as commercial and government space launch activities increase, it is imperative that airspace users account for potential disruptions due to launch operations.”
It further says that FAA air traffic control implements a range of hazard-mitigation measures to protect aircraft during both planned launches and unplanned anomalies.&nbsp;
The alert outlines that airspace management plans establish aircraft hazard areas, temporary flight restrictions, and debris-response areas. It explains that in the event of a catastrophic failure, ATC will reroute aircraft and issue alerts to affected flights.
“Past events have shown that when a mishap does occur, debris has fallen within or near the DRA,” the FAA noted, advising pilots to exercise “extreme caution near these areas.”
Additionally, the FAA emphasized that operators should incorporate space launch impacts directly into routine flight planning, including accounting for delays, holding fuel, and possible diversions. The SAFO advises operators to anticipate air traffic initiatives such as reroutes and ground delays, ensure compliance with fuel reserve requirements under Part 121, and identify alternate airports should debris response areas be activated.
It further cautions that “debris may extend beyond the designated DRA, requiring additional situational awareness,” particularly since debris response areas are not issued in procedural oceanic airspace. The agency recommended that dispatchers and flight crews monitor launch-related notams, participate in FAA system command center briefings, and use real-time operational tools to stay informed as space launch activity increasingly overlaps with heavily traveled airspace.

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