The light-airplane segment of the general aviation industry is showing evidence of contracting, but it is too early to determine whether this is a trend that will continue or whether the segment will turn around. General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA) statistics for the first quarter show that deliveries of piston-powered airplanes dropped 7.7 percent over the first quarter of last year. Student starts, which show the number of new medical certificates issued to people who might be planning to obtain a private pilot certificate, are down, too. The latest FAA figures show that student starts dropped to an annual rate of 84,866 in 2006 from 101,279 in 1995, the last year that this number exceeded 100,000. Avgas deliveries have reached historical lows, and avgas prices have reached historical highs (not adjusted for inflation).
Looking at the GAMA numbers for piston-airplane deliveries from the first quarter of last year through the same period this year, it is interesting to note that most increases in deliveries were from manufacturers of new-design airplanes such as Columbia Aircraft, Diamond Aircraft and Liberty Aerospace. The decline in deliveries by Cirrus is an exception. In almost every case of a decline (except for Cirrus), the airplanes are upgraded versions of long-time sellers such as those from Cessna, Hawker Beechcraft and Piper.
