Advanced air mobility (AAM) is where the space race meets the gold rush, with a dwindling group of start-ups scrambling for the elusive “finish line” marked by type certification and service entry for new eVTOL aircraft.

For these companies and their doubtless impatient investors, 2024 is drawing to a close with some important questions answered, but plenty of remaining doubts as to when the hype will be replaced by a sustainable flow of commercial returns from the billions of dollars that have already been plowed into the sector.

What does seem clearer is that the race is tightening, with just a handful of companies now visibly in contention for what might be seen as the first wave of eVTOL air services. Some contenders that might have seemed viable even a couple of years ago are barely on the radar anymore.

Others, in a group that includes the likes of Hyundai subsidiary Supernal, Embraer spinoff Eve Air Mobility, Boeing subsidiary Wisk Aero, Airbus, and Textron, have consciously opted out of the race to be first to market. For them, the horizon seems to lie more in the 2030s than the 2020s. They appear to have deep enough pockets, and management teams taking the long view, not to get drawn into the froth around what will or won’t happen in 2025.

Funding Dries Up

But there are other players around which existential concerns have escalated in recent weeks. Lilium, often viewed as one of Europe’s leading AAM contenders, has been forced to seek shelter in the German self-administration process after being refused German federal and state government funding of around $108 million.

As of press time, it was unclear whether the move would lead to further funding being lined up, with the possibility that ownership of the company could change hands and/or some operations could relocate to France.

In the UK, Vertical Aerospace is another eVTOL developer with a future that appears to be hanging in the balance. With a full-scale prototype of the four-passenger VX4 aircraft now in flight testing, leading shareholders Stephen Fitzpatrick and Mudrick Capital Management have been publicly at loggerheads over the terms under which further financing could be urgently raised to keep the program afloat.

By contrast, on the other side of the Atlantic, eVTOL developers Joby and Archer are ending the year apparently flush with funds, having boosted their war chests significantly in 2024. Nonetheless, as of press time, it remained far from certain whether either of these companies would hit their declared target of achieving FAA type certification before year-end.

Meanwhile, Beta Technologies passed the $1 billion mark in capital raised when it announced the conclusion of a $318 million Series C funding round on October 31. The Vermont-based company is developing both VTOL and conventional takeoff and landing versions of its Alia family of aircraft, with the latter targeted to complete FAA type certification in 2025, and the former to follow around 12 to 18 months later.

In fact, Sergio Cecutta whose SMG Consulting firm provides expertise to the AAM sector, believes industry timelines could be moving more slowly than industry promoters would have us believe. He told AIN that the first U.S. and European type certificates might not even be issued by the end of 2025 (see sidebar).

Operating Rules Provide Clarity

Regardless of when that key milestone is achieved, eVTOL aircraft manufacturers are now rapidly digesting what the newly-released FAA special federal aviation regulation for the “Integration of Powered Lift: Pilot Certification and Operations” will mean for service entry of early use cases such as eVTOL air taxi services. The U.S. regulator earned the industry’s gratitude for apparently taking on board a plethora of concerned comments over an earlier draft version.

The final document makes repeated use of the term “alternative requirements,” supporting the FAA’s willingness to accept a more performance-based approach to compliance in key areas such as energy reserves (governing eVTOL aircraft range) and training and certifying type-rated commercial pilots.

The new year may yet see adjustments to early use cases and plans to launch commercial services as prospective operators, including the likes of Delta Air Lines, come to terms with where and how they will be able to start reshaping public transportation.

It is by no means a given that the “where” will first materialize in the U.S. Joby has suggested that its first air taxi services may very well be in Dubai, where regulators seem determined to fulfill the Emirate’s ambition for another world-first. That said, the manufacturer recently indicated it will be late 2025 before the first passenger-carrying flights happen, with operations in U.S. launch cities New York and Los Angeles to follow.

Meanwhile, China provides perhaps a cautionary tale for those struggling to contain their impatience to see the dawn of the eVTOL age. It is now more than 12 months since EHang became the first eVTOL manufacturer in the world to achieve type certification, when the Civil Aviation Administration of China approved its autonomous EH216-S two-seater.

Another five months elapsed before the Chinese company secured the production certificate required to start series manufacturing. More importantly, as of press time, neither EHang nor any of its prospective customers had the air operator certificate required to launch commercial services.

More to AAM Than eVTOLs

Keep in mind that AAM is not all about all-electric eVTOLs. Companies like Electra Aero feel they can deliver more value with hybrid-electric STOL aircraft like the nine-passenger model for which it unveiled the first full-scale prototype in November. The Virginia-based company expects what it categorizes as an “ultra short” fixed-wing aircraft to be able to operate from patches of real estate barely any bigger than a football field, transforming regional air services in the process.

In Europe, effort and investment are going into developing new airliners to meet net zero carbon imperatives for the air transport sector. Among the pioneers are Sweden-based Heart Aerospace and Maeve in the Netherlands, while ZeroAvia has been making progress with its plans to convert existing regional airliners to operate with hydrogen-electric propulsion systems.