As a front-line NATO nation, Poland has been regarded as a lynchpin for the alliance against an increasingly belligerent and resurgent Russia. Most of the scenarios for a future conflict in Europe project a Russian incursion into Poland and/or the Baltics, prompting the Ministry of National Defence (MND) to engage in a broad-ranging programme of modernisation for its armed forces.
In 2017 Poland committed to go beyond the NATO minimum of 2 per cent of GDP on defence outlays and instituted a programme whereby the country’s spending should reach 2.5 per. By 2032, total defence spending should reach 80 billion zloty (PLN), roughly $21 billion US dollars. The former Soviet bloc nation is also lobbying for the US military to establish permanent bases on Polish territory in order to enhance the readiness of its armed forces to be able to engage in joint operations.
Washington has thus not committed to a US presence in Poland, a facility that Warsaw has proposed naming “Fort Trump.” What has been proposed for now is the US upgrading existing Polish bases and even adding to the size of those sites by building new facilities.
"It doesn't matter if it's one base, or many bases ... sometimes it's even better from the perspective of deterrence and logistics for there to be many localisations," said one senior Polish official who was close to the discussions about future US-Polish defence planning.
Poland’s two major priorities in this modernisation effort are to procure systems that are effective, current- or next-generation replacements for what is in many cases Russian-designed hardware that has been in inventory for many years. At the same time these need to be weapons platforms that are interoperable with neighbouring nations and other alliance members.
The second issue weighed heavily in the decision to procure the Raytheon PAC-3 Patriot Air and Missile Defence (AMD) system over the Lockheed Martin (LM) MBDA Deutschland and Italia consortium MEADS complex and has also been a strong argument for the procurement of the Boeing AH-64E Apache helicopter over other options.
One of the other attack helicopters being offered to Poland is not far beyond the ‘on-paper only” status, the Leonardo AW 249. Poland’s national defence industrial consortium. PGZ, have pledged to cooperate on the development of this aircraft, but projections as to when it might actually be available and in production are too far in the future to be factored in to current planning.
Poland took another step towards modernising its armed forces with the 28 May announcement that it had sent an official Letter of Request to the US Government for the purchase of 32 LM F-35 combat aircraft.
“Today we sent a request for quotation (LOR) to our American partners regarding the purchase of 32 F-35A aircraft along with a logistics and training package,” the Polish Defence Minister Mariusz Blaszczak tweeted on 28 May. The minister also gave a separate televised statement that Poland was still encouraging the US to increase its military presence on Polish territory.
What remains, however, say defence analysts looking at Poland’s procurements is that almost all of them are below the numbers that have been recommended in more than one of the country’s defence requirements assessments.
At this point the Polish armed forces will have two PAC-3 batteries “which is only enough to defend downtown Wasrsaw,” said a former US military officer who previously was assigned to the US Embassy Office of Defense Cooperation (ODC). “Poland needs batteries in the double-digits in order to adequately defend against the Russian [Iskander] missiles in Kaliningrad.”
The story is very similar for the AH-64E. Originally planning documents from the MND had called for between 70 and 100 attack helicopters, but the number is likely to be 35-37 units instead. Polish industry has also been complicating matters by insisting that it can fill the gap by modernising Mil Mi-24 HIND models in Polish inventory, but there is a growing body of evidence from the experience of Ukraine’s armed forces fighting against Russian units in the Donbas that this aircraft is not survivable against modern-day air defence systems.
The F-35 buy may constitute the biggest shortfall of all. Polish air power studies had concluded that the air force required 100 new fighter aircraft in addition to the 48 LM F-16s already in inventory and that all of the Russian-made Mikoyan MiG-29s and Sukhoi Su-22s should be retired. The 32 F-35s proposed do not even constitute one-third of the number needed. When the aircraft that will be down for repairs, those that will be in use for training and those being upgraded enter in to the equation the actual number available at any one time could be less than 20 aircraft.
Poland also was required to sign a contract by the middle of this year in order to receive aircraft by 2024-26. This required the Poles to exit their normal procurement process and conduct a no-competition, directed procurement.
“If you are Poland and your long-term goal is a closer relationship with the US then the F-35 buy maybe makes some sense,” said a defence analyst in Warsaw. “But from a readiness standpoint, waiting 5, 7 years – maybe longer – to have a new aircraft is beyond counterintuitive. If you wanted as many aircraft as you could have and as soon as possible the [Saab] Gripen C/D can be here within 18 months. This would give you a healthy crop of new-age aircraft to build up the number of your air force. “Then you can think about very specialised and expensive options like the F-35 as a ‘silver bullet’ option later on.”
If the F-35 deal goes through Poland’s fighter force will get smaller, rather than larger. The 32 US aircraft would be replacing 49 Soviet-era models leaving a combined total fighter force of only 80 jets.
