The contrast in global perspectives on business aviation’s prospects has rarely seemed starker than it did this week at the Corporate Jet Investor (CJI) conference in London. In simplistic terms, North American industry leaders view the glass as being well over half full, while their European cousins see their outlook as more of a poisoned chalice as they come to terms with stagnant economies and seemingly interminable political battles over what they view as stifling regulation.

From Embraer Executive Jets, chief commercial officer Stephen Friedrich told the gathering that he sees 2025 as “a golden era for private and business aviation.” He mentioned that the manufacturer has signed multiple purchase agreements with aircraft buyers in the first weeks of the new year.

“The state of the economy is everything, and it’s not just the U.S.,” he said. “We’re also seeing growth in Latin America and there are green shoots coming out of India and Saudi Arabia.”

However, when Europe-based aircraft operators and other service providers had the floor, the mood music was much darker. Echoing concerns raised ahead of the conference by EBAA secretary-general Holger Krahmer about excessive regulation and a lack of respect for the economic value of business aviation, multiple panelists struggled to contain their pessimism.

“We have talked for years about how we can increase our margins, but all the [European Union] regulations have meant that we’ve lost any efficiency gains we’ve achieved,” said Bernhard Fragner, founder and CEO of Austria-based charter operator Globe Air. “The bureaucracy eats up everything, and also we are running out of staff; since the pandemic, we’ve really not recovered at all.”

The Air Charter Association’s chief executive, Glenn Hogben, reported that five years on from Brexit, the UK’s departure from the European Union is now having an even greater negative impact not only on British companies but on their European rivals and partners too, mainly in terms of market access complications. On top of this, slot and capacity restrictions at European airports, as well as the complexity around decarbonization requirements, are generally reviewed as serious inhibitors of growth. Many CJI contributors spoke longingly about the U.S. market as if it were some kind of ‘promised land’ for business aviation.

Are Business Jet Bans on the Cards?

This vibe was bluntly encapsulated in the somewhat dystopian title of another CJI session: “Could a country really ban business jets?” This cannot be entirely ruled out in Europe, although a more likely scenario, according to Mark Bisset, an aviation finance lawyer with Clyde & Co, is increasingly punitive charges and restrictions.

Steven Truxal, professor of air and space law at Leiden University in the Netherlands, pointed out that Spain is now following the example of France in making plans for a ban on short-haul domestic flights for which there is a high-speed rail alternative. His employer bans him from flying unless the train journey is longer than six hours, and the Dutch government requires officials to take the train unless the trip duration would be longer than eight hours.

“However, a complete national ban [on all forms of business aviation] would need to align with wider aviation legal principles in terms of non-discrimination, and any environmental limits have to be evidence-based,” he advised. “States are sovereign and can impose restrictions and bans, but the rules would have to apply to all aircraft, regardless of their nationality under ICAO principles, and [ICAO’s] Article 44 says [rules] must not create unnecessary obstacles.”

In the UK, the British Business and General Aviation Association has just had to scramble to respond to a short-notice government consultation over proposals to reduce the size at which aircraft become liable for new higher-rate air passenger duties from 20 metric tons (44,000 pounds) of maximum takeoff weight to just 5.7 metric tons (12,540 pounds). Lindsey Oliver, the group’s managing director, said that the government’s response is anticipated in the second half of this year, but any change would not take effect until 2028. In a budget announcement on October 30, the UK government confirmed that the highest rate of passenger duties will increase by 50% from 2026.

Management and charter group TAG Aviation presented results from a survey of 16 of its aircraft owners, and some of the results seemed to partly allay industry concerns. For the most part, those responding said that rising duties and taxes do not deter them from flying privately, nor does the increased expense of using sustainable aviation fuel or the heat the industry takes from environmental protestors, including those who staged a noisy demonstration outside the CJI conference venue.

Aircraft Owners Slam Poor Industry Performance

Presented by Karl Mills, chief commercial officer of TAG Europe, the survey responses included some sharp criticism about aircraft manufacturers’ production rates and aftermarket support. Comments included accusations that OEMs and service providers put more investment into sales than customer support, highlighting what the aircraft owners said were unacceptable delays in getting parts and poor service ascribed in part to a lack of competition.

During a panel session led by preowned aircraft brokers, several experts echoed observations about shifts in the preferences of business aviation’s customer base. “We’re seeing different choices being made by buyers,” said Mike Dwyer from Guardian Jet. “The corporates are now more prone to missionizing their fleet, by including smaller equipment in the mix, while the high net worths are increasingly influenced by green concerns, and this is encouraging [use of] shared aircraft ownership programs where they feel they are less of an [environmental] intrusion.”

At Embraer, Stephen Friedrich also noted changes in buyer priorities grounded mainly in generational differences. “The fractional ownership business has continued to grow with increased wealth generation and also wealth transfer [between generations], and in fact we’re surprised it’s not growing even faster, but the fractional ownership companies would say that is because we [OEMs] are not delivering aircraft fast enough,” he observed.

Business jet makers like Embraer are engaging with more people in their 20s and 30s. Friedrich pointed to research suggesting that in the next 10 years, more than 1.2 million people will have a net worth greater than $500 million, and that something like $31 trillion is set to be transferred to the heirs of high-net-worth individuals, with an average age of 45 at the time of the inheritance.

Generational differences cropped up again when Charles Porteous, president of Montreal-based Seefeld Marketing International, presented the latest findings of a rolling exercise in behavioral economics conducted among delegates to CJI conferences. His team, supported by Global Jet Capital, found that 53% of respondents showed a neutral or pessimistic attitude to the state of the business aviation industry, with 47% broadly categorized as optimists.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the pessimist/neutral group was larger among Europeans (65%) than among North Americans (49%). But Porteous pointed out that industry respondents aged in their 30s were generally far more pessimistic than those towards the end of their careers, in their late 50s and 60s. His closing message was that the industry needs to have more self-belief if it is to convince new market entrants and existing clients about the worth of their value proposition.

No one could accuse the panelists in the 2025 CJI London event of lacking belief in the industry’s prospects. In a session headlined “Making U.S. business aviation even greater,” experts from the aircraft sales community were unanimous in acknowledging a pronounced uptick in market sentiment and activity since around the time of the November 2024 U.S. general election.

Trump Bump Is Real, but Maybe Not Lasting

“We’ve definitely seen a Trump bump,” proclaimed Joan Roberts, vice president of Insured Aircraft Title Service. She said her company had been turning away deals by the end of 2024 because it simply didn’t have capacity to handle the volume.

At AIC Title Services, Bruce Marshall said that his business increased in volume by 12% last year and that the growth has continued into the early weeks of 2025. “I don’t see it coming to an end for a while,” he stated.

In his capacity as executive director of the International Aircraft Dealers Association, industry veteran Louis C. Seno, Jr. spoke for a large constituency of dealmakers reporting strong demand, limited preowned aircraft supplies, and firm prices. Matt Stringfellow, founding partner at Soljets, said the brokering group is already having its best first quarter in the past nine years.

Adding to the rosy outlook was the solid expectation that the Trump administration will restore 100% bonus depreciation on aircraft sales. Several speakers also suggested that tax reductions for wealthy individuals, and incentives for companies, will add to the heat in the market, along with a prediction that the audits of aircraft ownership actioned by the Biden administration will not come to pass with the Internal Revenue Service now facing defunding and cuts in personnel.

However, beyond the blue sky outlook, these experts said they remained mindful of clouds on the horizon. In different ways, the panelists warned of possible unforeseen consequences of the new U.S. administration’s dramatic change in policy course.

David Hernandez, an attorney with Vedder Price, provided a balancing view that warned of industry difficulties due to obstacles resulting from a diminished FAA. “And the tariffs [threatened on imports from aerospace exporters including Canada and Europe] spook me, and I’m not sure how that will play out,” he said. “There are some [potential problems] with micro-economic factors, such as interest rates, credit card debt, and property taxes. The [strong] stock market has helped, but when stocks start dropping, it could spook a lot of companies. But, for now, it’s very good to be in business aviation in the U.S.”