Business jet brokers’ market sentiment has remained stable in the past six months, according to the latest semi-annual index released by Jefferies Equity Research. Based on responses from some 100 business jet brokers, the index was stable at 5.9 on a 10-point scale, the same as in June, but down from the all-time high of January 2022 of 8.7.

According to the survey, brokers most frequently cited a stronger used business jet market with longer lead times as driving the market (22%), while 18% pointed to higher available inventories and 13% to new entrants. Other factors cited include concerns of economic slowdown (9%) and a decline in bonus depreciation (7%).

Meanwhile, when asked about the greatest risks to business jet sales, 35% said economic slowdowns in key markets, 16% cited higher Fed rates, and 14% expressed concerns about supply-chain lead times.

Brokers anticipate 3% growth in the market on average this year, down a point from the June survey. Jefferies, meanwhile, is estimating 11% gains in the new market as supply-chain issues abate and Gulfstream and Dassault ramp up on their newest models. Last year also saw fewer deliveries with the strike at Textron Aviation.

Used business jet inventory continues to grow, reaching 1,263 aircraft and representing 5.1% of the fleet available for sale in December. This is up from the 4.8% one-year average and the 4.7% five-year average. 

Jefferies said its survey revealed that market sentiment on the Gulfstream G400 remains mixed but that it is more positive (72%) toward the G700 despite delays that the analyst said are attributed to Rolls-Royce’s Pearl production schedule, residual impact from certification delays, time for customized interior certification, and a shortage of technical delivery personnel. Gulfstream remains the most in-demand business jet OEM, followed by Cessna (Citation).

The Citation Longitude is viewed as “capable” but with a higher price point and “brand stigma” in that segment, while the Embraer Praetor is viewed as technically strong but with supply chain and service availability concerns. The Bombardier Challenger 350 remains popular, Jefferies added, but the model is older than some of the other midsize jets available in the preowned market.