Joseph Carfagna Jr. is president, partner, and CEO of aircraft brokerage and consultancy Leading Edge Aviation Solutions. He has worked in the business aviation industry for more than 30 years and is a seasoned salesman and aviation expert.

Contributor

Joseph Carfagna Jr.

It was tough for both buyers and sellers to follow the wild changes that occurred as the effects of Covid pinched the market so tightly from 2020 to 2022. Then, there was the counter-reaction of the market building up inventory and prices falling gradually over the course of 2023 and 2024.
We have tracked inventory very closely since the beginning of 2022 when the market reached its lowest level of supply we have ever seen. Here are some pieces of data we collected that are noteworthy takeaways. At Leading Edge, we track 46 types of aircraft weekly, from the Pilatus PC-12 to the Global 7500, Falcon 8X, and Gulfstream 650, as well as everything in between. Newer models and older models make up a comprehensive view of the corporate aircraft market.
Across those 46 types, here are what we feel are interesting points:
<ul>
<li>In March 2022, approximately 1.48% of the fleet was for sale.</li>
<li>One year later in March 2023, that had risen to 3.72%.</li>
<li>And another year later in March 2024, it rose to 5.65%.</li>
<li>Today, it is 6.46% and has been between 6.35% and 6.46% from June until now.</li>
</ul>
So, what did that do to pricing? It greatly depends upon not only the type of aircraft but more importantly the vintage of the aircraft. According to Vref, all the makes and models that we watch hit their market highs between Q2 2022 and Q1 2023. We have focused primarily on aircraft that were at least two or three years old when Covid started. Let’s show you some dramatic and some not-so-dramatic examples through Q2 2024 (all values herein are right from Vref). These are how different makes and models changed from their individual highs through Q2 2024:
Bombardier:
<ul>
<li>2002 Challenger 604 is 66% lower</li>
<li>2012 Global 5000 is 36% lower</li>
<li>2014 Challenger 350 is 22% lower</li>
<li>2016 Challenger 650 is 29% lower</li>
</ul>
Cessna:
<ul>
<li>2001 Citation Excel is 16% lower</li>
<li>2009 Citation Sovereign is 12% lower</li>
<li>2016 Citation XLS+ is 17% lower</li>
<li>2017 Citation Sovereign+ is 10% lower</li>
</ul>
Embraer
<ul>
<li>2016 Embraer Phenom 300 is 14% lower</li>
</ul>
Falcon:
<ul>
<li>2001 Falcon 2000 Classic is 44% lower</li>
<li>2006 Falcon 900EX EASy is 53% lower</li>
<li>2012 Falcon 7X is 16% lower</li>
<li>2016 Falcon 8X is 6% lower</li>
</ul>
Gulfstream:
<ul>
<li>1997 GIVSP is 75% lower</li>
<li>1999 GV is 49% lower</li>
<li>2011 G450 is 46% lower</li>
<li>2012 G550 is 20% lower</li>
<li>2018 G650ER is 29% lower</li>
</ul>
Hawker
<ul>
<li>2009 900XP is 37% lower</li>
<li>2007 850XP is 50% lower</li>
<li>2000 800XP is 43% lower</li>
</ul>
Pilatus:
<ul>
<li>2014 PC-12NG is 9% lower</li>
</ul>
Older aircraft were the last to see their prices skyrocket, and the first to see them plummet. Overall, pricing is still higher than it was before Covid—even after this big surge and drop in the market—simply because Covid caused the audience of corporate aircraft “consumers” to become much larger. More people chartered and bought cards, shares, and whole aircraft during the pandemic. And a majority of them are remaining in the market. This is a good thing.
The new normal with approximately 6.5% of the fleet available is finally feeling kinda…normal.
The opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and are not necessarily endorsed by AIN Media Group.

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