Joseph Carfagna Jr. is president, partner, and CEO of aircraft brokerage and consultancy Leading Edge Aviation Solutions. He has worked in the business aviation industry for more than 30 years and is a seasoned salesman and aviation expert.

Contributor

Joseph Carfagna Jr.

Anyone who makes their profession within the business aviation industry is well aware of what happened to seemingly everything we touch relative to business aircraft as a result of the pandemic. During that time of uncertainty, everything became scarce and expensive.
Now, nearly four years later, we all can likely agree that things have loosened up for a vast majority of us who work in and around business aircraft—to a certain degree. I cannot speak to all sectors of the industry, but I can speak to the aircraft resale market. Let’s look back and also forward to see where it puts us now.
Depending on the source of the data chosen, it will show in approximate terms that the supply of for-sale preowned business aircraft was at an all-time low in early 2022, at approximately 2 percent of the fleet. It hit a high of about 6 percent four months ago and, at present, it is just off that high. What we have defined as “normal” in years past is approximately 7 to 8 percent of the fleet for sale at any given time. But it makes me wonder: is 6 percent the “new normal”?
Here is where I think it gets more interesting. Other than the last two months of 2023 (driven by the usual year-end, tax-driven sales behavior), inventory of aircraft coming on the market versus those that have sold has been at a pretty consistent rate for approximately one year. It has been anywhere from 2:1 to 2.5:1. It is a good case that all that the market lost in supply at the end of 2023 due to year-end purchasing has nearly been replaced over the first quarter.
The Vref price book holding firm now for one quarter tells us, in my opinion, that we may be getting close to “normal” and that the Covid pricing correction has slowed and may have bottomed out or perhaps flattened out. Most models have fallen between approximately 10 to 30 percent from their highest values posted in late 2022.
What does all of this mean? I’m of the mindset that the market has either come close to finishing or has finished its correction from the spike in prices and decrease in supply that occurred. I also believe it is a fair bet that corporate aircraft will continue to incrementally increase in supply at a slower pace and get back to “average” supply of approximately 7 to 8 percent over 2024. In most cases, aircraft prices are still higher than they were pre-Covid, but the demand for business aircraft is stronger. As a result, pricing may settle out a bit higher from where it was in 2019.
In general, backlogs for most new models of aircraft have not been getting longer each quarter like they did when values were peaking in late 2022 and early 2023. But the number of people who wish to fly in a business aircraft—whether it be in the form of charter, fractional ownership, or full ownership—is still greater than it was in 2019.
It will be easier to define what is normal when we can estimate that inventory levels are at their new, sustainable levels and pricing has flattened. Then we can know how large the audience is for the product we all touch in some way—the business aircraft. It is a fair estimation, in my opinion, that we may actually be at or near the new normal right now. Back to a “normal” rate of market depreciation, back to “normal” pricing levels, and going to work every day is back to…normal.
Joseph Carfagna Jr. is president, partner, and CEO of aircraft brokerage and consultancy Leading Edge Aviation Solutions. He has worked in the business aviation industry for more than 30 years and is a seasoned salesman and aviation expert.
The opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and not necessarily endorsed by AIN Media Group.

News and developments about airplanes, helicopters and unmanned air vehicles used in all varieties of operations, including airlines, military, business, commercial, general aviation and private.

AINsight: A New Normal for Preowned Business Aircraft

There are signs that the used aircraft market has hit bottom

There are signs that the preowned business aircraft market may actually be at or near a new normal right now.

2024 Corporate Aviation Leadership Summit

AmyWilder

News and issues relating to the aerospace industry that are related to the science, engineering and business of flight in space involving civil, industrial and military applications, and similar topics related to flight in the atmosphere of the Earth that are not covered more directly by other AINonline subject channels. In other words, both astronautical and aeronautical subjects, except for those aeronautical topics that are specifically covered elsewhere on this website.

Acquisition strengthens Woodward’s aircraft technology portfolio 

Woodward, Safran Ink Deal for Electromechanical Assets

Matt Thurber

News and issues concerning general aviation, specifically airplanes and helicopters powered by piston and alternative engines (i.e., non-turbine powered aircraft). Subjects include aircraft, engines, personnel, acquisitions, accidents, safety, security and training.

Company president Jason Huang resigns and Lily Hu takes over

Icon Aircraft Moving Some Manufacturing to China

News and issues relating to business, corporate and private aviation, primarily regarding turbine-engine-powered airplanes and helicopters. Subjects include aircraft, engines, maintenance, operations, personnel, acquisitions, accidents, safety, security, and training.

An average of seven Vision Jets per month were delivered during the first three quarters of this year

Cirrus Delivers 600th Vision Jet Since 2016 Market Entry

Charles Alcock

News and developments about aircraft engines, including turbofan, turboprop, turboshaft and piston.

News about bills, laws, regulations and other governmental decisions affecting aviation and aerospace. Topics include FAA re-authorizations, taxes on fuel and aviation activities, environmental legislation, ICAO decisions, governmental mediation of labor conflicts and World Trade Organization disputes and decisions.

Latest prototype of the two-seater now features improved rotors 

Volocopter Makes Final Push Toward eVTOL Aircraft Type Certification

Hanneke Weitering

News and issues regarding all manner of civil and military rotorcraft and their powerplants, including helicopters, tilt rotors and unmanned air vehicles.

Agreement covers up to 12 of the Alia-250 model and is Beta's second sale in New Zealand

New Zealand Air Ambulance Service Orders Beta's eVTOL Aircraft

New developments at airports including regulations and noise issues; legal disputes; openings, acquisitions and mergers.

Midnight eVTOL aircraft production begins in 2025

Archer Completes Georgia eVTOL Factory

Deliveries of the turboprop single can now start in the UK

Piper M700 Fury Secures UK CAA Nod

Kerry Lynch

News and issues relating to international air transport and cargo carriers, national airlines and regional airlines, including aircraft, engines, personnel, acquisitions, accidents, safety, security and training.

Essential news and analysis on the defense aerospace business. Your trusted source for new and ongoing programs and requirements in military aircraft (manned and unmanned), engines, avionics, weapons and associated systems, including ground-based air defense.

More In Aircraft