With a deal in place to sell its train unit and the promise of shaving billions in debt, Bombardier looks to emerge as a standalone business jet manufacturer. But business aviation analyst Brian Foley noted today that the historical record isn’t kind to general/business aviation OEMs that rely on a single market.

“The business jet industry can be extremely cyclical, which makes for some very rewarding highs followed by bone-crushing lows,” Foley wrote. “The biggest unknown is just how the company will weather the next swoon with all of its eggs in one basket.”

Comparing the history of airframers such as Piper, Mooney—which “just shut its doors, again”— and Eclipse, Foley pointed out Bombardier competitors Dassault, Gulfstream, and Textron Aviation have a fallback when the general/business aviation market falters: defense work. “Often the two are counter-cyclical, with firm-contract military contracts floating the civil side in bad times and vice-versa,” he noted.

Bombardier won’t have that diversification, but he said it is “a very viable business jet concern” with a well-known, respected brand and a popular Global line that was second in delivery units and value in 2018. Longer-term, Bombardier could be an attractive acquisition target for defense contractors. “The Gulfstream grab several years back by General Dynamics played out well and could be emulated by others such as Lockheed Martin or Northrop Grumman,” Foley explained.