Argus Forecasts Flat Holiday Followed By First Quarter Jump
Fractional aircraft activity is expected to see a double-digit gain in the first quarter of 2020.

Business aircraft activity is expected to remain largely flat over the holidays but will see a bump in the first quarter of 2020, according to Argus’s Holiday & Q1 Business Aircraft Activity forecast. Activity is projected to increase just 0.1 percent over the period between December 21 and January 3, with 10 of the 14 days higher year-over-year.


Airports with the most business aircraft traffic over the holidays will be led by Teterboro (TEB) with 1,611 arrivals followed by Palm Beach (PBI) at 1,301 and Van Nuys (VNY) at 1,154, according to the forecast. Argus said overall business aircraft activity in December 2019 should be up 1.4 percent from last year.  


In the first quarter, activity is anticipated to rise by 4.2 percent from last year, with February posting the biggest gain at 5.9 percent. Among segments, fractional activity is expected to jump 10.7 percent from 2019 while Part 135 and Part 91 flights will see gains of 3.3 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively.