As August comes to a close, Congress is left with just a month—and actually far less than that—to come to some sort of agreement on a long-term FAA reauthorization bill or face yet another extension of the agency’s operating authority. The agency is operating under a short-term extension set to expire September 30. Another stop-gap measure would make the sixth short-term extension in the current reauthorization cycle.

The last long-term reauthorization cycle expired on Sept. 30, 2015. It took only 23 short-term extensions and five-plus years to get that long-term bill, FAA Modernization and Reform Act of 2012, passed. The debates that held up long-term legislation a decade ago weren’t too far from the debates that had held up the current reauthorization bill, namely how to fund air traffic control.

A decade ago, then-Senate Commerce Committee chairman Jay Rockefeller (D-West Virginia) pushed hard for a $25 per-flight user fee for IFR flights to help fund NextGen projects, a move intended to shift some costs to business and general aviation operators. In the most recent cycle, debate centered more on the structure of a user-funded air traffic control organization itself, but the architect of that proposal, House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Chairman Bill Shuster (R-Pennsylvania), attempted a carve-out for business and general aviation from user fees.

After a multitude of delays and short-term extensions of FAA’s operating authority, Rockefeller ultimately capitulated on his per-flight fee and the Senate unanimously passed long-term FAA reauthorization in 2010. But, much to Rockefeller’s dismay, his act of compromise yielded few immediate results. It took two more years before a comprehensive bill was passed. 

Squabbles between the House and Senate, the turnover to a new Congress, and myriad provisions—including issues such as Essential Air Service and union rules—prevented final passage. In fact, the debate reached a stalemate in summer 2011, leading to a two-week lapse of FAA’s operating authority and expiration of the aviation excise taxes. Congress finally agreed on a long-term bill in early 2012.

Similarly, earlier this year Shuster conceded his fight for an independent, user-funded ATC organization. This cleared to way for quick and overwhelming House passage of the bill. But as history is beginning to show signs of repeating itself, like Rockefeller, Shuster stepped aside on an issue that mattered greatly to him, only to watch the bill seemingly hang in limbo.

Once the House passed the bill, optimism abounded that a long-term bill was going to quickly sail through the Senate. Even while that bill contained a few controversial measures, such as one surrounding the 1,500-hour rule for ATPs, the current Commerce Committee chairman, John Thune (R-South Dakota), has a well-established reputation for working with colleagues to reach compromise. And he has remained consistently hopeful of its passage.

At first many believed he wanted to get it done by the Fourth of July break and then it became before the traditional Senate August recess. When the recess was canceled, hopes then pinned upon August passage. Even as recently as a week ago, Thune was expressing a desire to get the bill through and avoid another extension.

And indeed, some progress has been made. A manager’s amendment has been crafted and agreement reached on numerous amendments. The bill is so close to consensus that Washington insiders believe that it can get through the Senate in a day or little more.

But finding that day has proved elusive. The Senate has many other priorities and soon will face a major debate on a Supreme Court nominee, as well as the prospect of finalization of numerous appropriation bills.

Aviation has consistently remained lower priority on a Capitol Hill that has been focused on upcoming elections and hot-button issues such as immigration. Plus Democrats have been hoping for a takeover so they can have control over the direction of major bills. This gives little incentive to push any significant bill through in a timely fashion before the elections.

It is still possible for the Senate to act before the September 30 deadline. As long as Thune remains active and continues to work closely with his Democrat counterpart Bill Nelson (D-Florida), the Senate might find a day. But, even with Senate approval, the Senate and House bills contain numerous differences. Those differences would need to be hashed out in a House/Senate conference and return to both chambers for another round of approvals.

In addition, even though a month remains for Capitol Hill action, in practice far less than that remains. The Senate’s early tentative schedule provides a total of 16 days in session in September. The House has only 11 voting days scheduled, including some Mondays when the session starts late and Friday when the session ends early.

Many see action possible in the days following the November elections. But if Congress fails to act by the end of the year, a new Congress begins and all bills must start from scratch.

This provides another opportunity for proposals use as ATC reforms or user fees to creep back into reauthorization bills.