With airframers awaiting signs of a major rebound in new business jet sales, industry analyst Brian Foley believes the pattern seen since 2011, an average of 692 deliveries a year with a standard deviation of just 25, might not be easy to break. “Statistically, there’s a pretty good chance that 2017 results will also fall within that narrow band, as will 2018's,” he noted. “This trend has not been random, but rather a symphony of equal and opposite market forces holding deliveries in tight equilibrium.”

He asserts that rather than a benchmark, the peak of 1,317 deliveries in 2008 should be considered an anomaly, and one not likely to be reached again under the current normalized and sustainable market conditions. While the U.S. and European markets have seen recovery, that has been offset by weakness in emerging markets that were affected by falling commodity prices and government policies.

Another factor weighing on the market is the growth in membership and fractional programs for those who wish to fly privately without owning an aircraft. Foley added that business jets, which once were appreciated for their ability to maintain or even gain in value, now depreciate more like other capital goods.

He believes that the anticipated entrance of new models could help stimulate the market. “Many of these new products are in the expensive, large-cabin category, which has been lagging lately. This will help that segment regain while lifting the overall billings of the business jet market meaningfully.”