Embraer is expecting a slight dip in the market worldwide and relatively flat growth in the Middle East in 2017, with stronger growth not coming until after 2018, Claudio Camelier, vice-president sales, Asia-Pacific and the Middle East for Embraer, said Wednesday during the MEBAA Show.
Presenting the most recent version of the company’s rolling 10-year outlook, Camelier said Embraer expects 8,400 jets valued at $244 billion will be delivered from 2017 through 2026. This is a “slight increase, but not a big increase” over the previous 10-year period cited, when 8,166 jets valued at $198 billion were shipped, he said.
The Middle East is expected to account for 2 percent of the world region market during the forecast period and 3 percent of the value. Embraer (Chalet A5) anticipates 200 new business jets will go into the region with a value of $8 billion. The region remains more heavily weighted toward larger aircraft, which leads to the slightly higher forecast in value than in actual deliveries, he added.
This is a market dynamic that Camelier does not see changing in the near future. He noted Embraer has had some opportunity with light jets—including its order from Etihad for four of its Phenoms for flight training—but added that any shift would take some time.
The Middle East fleet has grown at a 7 percent compound annual growth rate since 2004, reaching 390 total aircraft this year. Large aircraft account for 234 of that total and medium aircraft another 129 aircraft.
In the next few year, Camelier said Embraer expects the market to remain relatively flat, which he said is “a market growing, but at slow rates.” Despite recent contraction, he said the market has stabilized.
For Embraer, the Middle East is an important market, Camelier said, noting the company has shipped 50 aircraft to the region. The majority of those aircraft have gone to customers in the UAE (19) and Saudi Arabia (12). And, the overwhelming majority—42—is for aircraft at the top end of the company’s line, including the Legacy 600/650 and Lineage 1000 and shuttle variants.
Among the Phenoms delivered to the region, Etihad has taken the first two 100Es with two more aircraft slated to come next year. Emirates Flight Training, meanwhile, is among the launch customer’s of Embraer’s Phenom 100EV version that was announced in late July and incorporates a new Prodigy Touch flight deck, based on the Garmin G3000, and modified Pratt & Whitney Canada PW617F1-E engines. That aircraft is expected to be handed over in 2017 as well.
The first couple of Legacy 500s also have entered the Middle East region but more are on the way, including one more destined to Cedar Executive in Lebanon. Camelier noted.
To support its fleet, Embraer has to authorized centers in the region, ExecuJet in Dubai and Falcon Aviation Services in Abu Dhabi.
