There are strong indications of growing optimism in the business aviation industry, judging by JetNet’s latest survey, but it remains to be seen how well that will translate to reality in a market that is still awaiting a resurgence. According to Rolland Vincent, managing director of industry data provider JetNet IQ, the level of optimistic sentiment among respondents to its aircraft owner and operator survey is the highest since the company launched the quarterly survey five years ago.
The survey, which tallies input from more than 500 business aircraft operators worldwide, finds that 62 percent believe the industry has passed the low point in the current business cycle and is on an upward trajectory. Optimism is strongest in North America, where 73 percent of respondents view the market as on an upswing; 49 percent in the first quarter of last year held that opinion. Optimism is weakest in Latin America and the Caribbean, where the number of operators who believe the industry still hasn’t reached the bottom of the trough is the same as the number who think it is climbing out.
In Europe, approximately half of those who responded to the survey believe the market is on the rise, while roughly one third say it is still at the low point of the cycle. Although the European business jet market is generally considered to be depressed, JetNet’s analysis portrays a situation less dire. Despite a decade of annual real GDP growth of one percent for Europe, the region’s business aircraft fleet has grown by 8.3 percent, challenging the widely held notion that the business aircraft fleet cannot expand without at least 3-percent GDP growth. The North American economy saw 1.6-percent GDP growth over the same period; its fleet grew by 3.4 percent.
In the European market, the growing strength of the U.S. dollar (the currency for most business jet pricing) could have some effect on sales. When asked how a continued strong dollar would shape their purchase intentions, 41 percent of European respondents noted it would drive down the probability of their buying an aircraft.
The company noted there is still a decoupling of U.S. corporate profits and business jet deliveries, from its peak in 2008 when 709 jets were delivered to U.S. customers. While current corporate profits are far outstripping those of 2008, for the past five years the number of business jet deliveries in the U.S. each year has remained relatively flat at less than half the 2008 peak, and Vincent predicts about the same total for this year. One possible explanation for this seeming disconnect could be a changing buyer demographic, said Michael Amalfitano, the recently retired head of Bank of America’s aircraft finance division. He suggested that wealthy individuals account for more sales than they have previously, which could be causing a paradigm shift in the correlation between corporate profits and bizjet deliveries.
Given the mid-year numbers, Vincent expects business jet deliveries for the year to total 717 worldwide, slightly less than last year’s tally and down from the company’s earlier prediction of approximately 740.
According to JetNet, the length of ownership for a new jet has risen over the past decade to 5.1 years from 3.7 years in 2005, and owners of pre-owned jets are now holding onto them for 3.2 years, on average a year longer. Vincent believes that replacement will account for 70 percent of new business jet demand in the North American market. Respondents who said there’s a strong likelihood (greater than 60 percent) that they will buy a new jet over the next year do not have large cabins in their sights: “Legacy 500s, Latitudes, Challenger 350s and G280s–this is the class of aircraft that is really in demand over the next 12 months; that’s what we’re hearing from the community,” said Vincent. Nearly 55 percent of the respondents who said they’re looking to buy indicated they intend to purchase business jets in this size category.
JetNet’s snapshot of the age of the world business jet fleet showed that 3,156 heavy jets are less than a decade old, while approximately the same number of light jets are more than 21 years old.
The IQ survey asked what effect continued softness in the price of petroleum would have on aircraft usage, and more than half reported they anticipate no change in their flight hours; more than 40 percent indicated they expect to use their aircraft more. Some 65 percent of the respondents noted that a continued slump in oil prices would not change their likelihood to purchase an aircraft.
