During the first quarter of this year, Embraer delivered 12 business jets, down 40 percent from the 20 delivered during the first quarter of 2014. For 2015, the company’s guidance projects deliveries of 80 to 90 light jets and 35 to 40 large jets. Of the worldwide fleet of 860 Embraer business jets, 19 percent are based in Europe and Africa (64 light jets and 79 large jets in Europe and five light jets and 13 large jets in Africa).

Deliveries of the new midsize Legacy 500, which entered service last year, are ramping up, with five delivered so far. That number includes the first for Europe, for a Turkish operator, while an aircraft is due for delivery to Lebanon’s Middle East Airlines for executive charter before the end of the year. The Legacy 450 is scheduled to enter service in the second half of this year, with a second aircraft now being prepared with a production interior so that certification can be completed.

“With new technology coming to market like the Legacy 450 and 500, that stimulates new deliveries,” said Luciano Froes, senior vice president market intelligence for Embraer Executive Aircraft. “All of a sudden, it’s not pre-owned versus new, you have to go new if you want access to the latest technology.”

One company that is taking advantage of the opportunity to tap into the fly-by-wire and other new technologies of the Legacy 450/500 family is fractional-share operator Flexjet, which is owned by Directional Aviation. When Flexjet was owned by Bombardier, it had ordered up 60 Learjet 85s and sold more than 60 shares in the new jets, but because that program has been “paused” by Bombardier, Flexjet has been seeking a replacement airplane. “We’re going to replace those with Legacy 450s and 500s from Embraer,” Flexjet CEO Michael Silvestro told AIN. “It was a product category that [customers] were looking forward to and we want to make sure to keep them in the family. We’ll do the Legacy 500 entry into service in the fourth quarter this year.” The Legacy 450 should join the Flexjet fleet beginning in the second quarter of 2016.

Embraer’s market forecast released last October projects a market for 9,250 business jets worth $265 billion during the coming decade (2015 through 2024). The bulk of these will be delivered in North America (4,250 worth $120 billion), with about a quarter of the units (2,360 worth $77 billion) headed to the Europe, Middle East and Africa market. The China and Latin America markets will account for about the same number of units (835 and 850 respectively), but Chinese buyers prefer larger aircraft, so the value of their purchases will be about $33 billion versus $16 billion in Latin America. Asia-Pacific should account for 570 aircraft worth $19 billion.

“We do see the Chinese market has decelerated because of austerity measures,” said José Rego, senior manager, market strategies, Executive Jets.

Flight activity in the U.S. is looking positive, but while it has climbed above the bottom in 2009, it remains below the peak in 2007, Froes acknowledged. Europe’s first quarter 2015 flight activity is worse than the same period last year, but still higher than 2009, he said.

Embraer studies the preowned market carefully and has noted that inventories have dropped since the peak in 2009. However, Froes explained, “Although inventory has been reducing, the gap between fair market value and real asking prices is increasing.” The result is that even though aircraft may be for sale, their owners end up keeping them longer. “There is a really deep gap between what they should expect and what the market will actually offer,” he said. “This is a really huge gap [for which] the industry has to come up with a solution.” Embraer’s analysis does show that there is good news, in that there is some stability and this gap is trending down. “Maybe the market has reached its highest level in terms of this gap,” he said. Another takeaway from the analysis is that the preowned market has become global. “In the past, many transactions were intra regions, he said. “Today the strong phenomena is that maybe your buyer in not in the U.S.”

A key part of Embraer’s strategy, Froes said, “is to grow internationally. We’re a global company with global customers.” Embraer has expanded its service network around the world, now with six factory-owned service centers and 69 authorized service centers. The company’s Melbourne, Florida, campus is expanding, with all Phenom 100 and 300 final assembly and paint moving there to make more room in São José dos Campos to manufacture the new E-Jet airliners. A new engineering center has been added at Melbourne, as well a customer and delivery center for the Phenoms. A new customer and delivery center is planned for the Legacy 450 and 500 when a new final assembly line for those is opened there. “One reason we selected Melbourne was access to highly skilled labor on the Space Coast,” he said. “We’ve installed the latest and greatest manufacturing processes and paperless operations. It is very efficient. The idea is to continue to expand on that front.

“We’re very much pressing forward,” Froes concluded. “We’re staying the course from an investment, manufacturing and operations, customer support and product introduction standpoint. We’re well positioned to take advantage of the current market and have been [doing so], but also for any potential turnaround.”