The business jet market is expected to grow by double digits in 2015, according to J.P.Morgan’s latest Business Jet Monthly update. Deliveries have increased by about 3 percent this year, marking the first measurable growth since 2008, J.P.Morgan estimated. Deliveries further should jump by 13 percent in 2015, buoyed by introduction of models such as the Embraer Legacy 450/500, Cessna Citation Latitude and HondaJet. 

Inventory data, used-pricing stabilization and increased flying in the U.S. all support optimism for a return to growth, J.P.Morgan added. 

Despite this optimism, J.P.Morgan sees a softening in emerging market demand both from government restraints and lower oil prices. The weakening of emerging markets particularly affects large-cabin aircraft, since two-thirds of the demand for this category is outside North America.  Only one-third of the demand for light jets comes from outside North America. “This distribution of risk is a reversal from the prevailing market dynamic for most of the time since the financial crisis, in which non-U.S. demand has supported large-cabin aircraft production while light jets have lagged,” J.P.Morgan said.

The analyst’s estimates track with the Aerospace Industries Association’s U.S.-specific forecast for low single-digit growth of the broader general aviation industry in 2014 and further growth in 2015.