Chad is the editor of AINalerts, AIN's daily business aviation newsletter, and is also the news editor at AIN Media Group.&nbsp;He has been writing about aviation, with an emphasis on business aviation, since 1994. Chad started his writing career at The Avion,&nbsp;the&nbsp;student newspaper at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in Daytona Beach, Florida, serving as editor-in-chief before graduating with a bachelor's in aeronautical science. After a stint as managing editor at Professional Pilot&nbsp;magazine, he joined&nbsp;AIN in late 1998. Chad holds a commercial pilot certificated with instrument and multi-engine ratings, and he also is a CFI/CFII. He lives and works from his home in Venice, Florida.

Online Editor

Chad Trautvetter

Business aviation analyst Brian Foley believes that deliveries will trend modestly upward, though he cautioned that this “projection assumes that the economy and buyer confidence in general will gradually strengthen. Both are necessary catalysts for sales. If they don't improve–and it probably will take both of them–then it must be considered that deliveries could stay flat into the foreseeable future.” He is standing by his forecast of 700 business jet deliveries this year, growing to a peak of more than 1,100 in 2016, then diminishing a bit. But “since it's based on assumptions that might conceivably go another way, we’ve added a contingency prediction that’s more pessimistic.” In this alternative forecast model, deliveries would plateau at around 850 units per year. “But that would happen only if the economic doldrums continue, exacerbated by confidence-sapping threats of tax-law changes, restrictive aircraft financing, user fees, anti-bizjet rhetoric and such,” he said. “It would probably take a confluence of all these dire things acting simultaneously. Otherwise, the odds still favor the growth model.”

Foley: Odds Still Favor Bizav Growth

If the economy doesn't recover, then business jet deliveries would plateau, says analyst Brian Foley.

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