Conklin & de Decker cofounder and president Bill de Decker is warning that the proposed
cap-and-trade legislation intended to reduce CO₂ emissions could have serious effects on the business aviation industry, and as early as 2012. Under proposed H.R.2454, the goal is to reduce CO₂ emissions to 17 percent of 2005 levels by 2050, with intermediate goals of 97 percent in 2012, 80 percent in 2020 and 58 percent in 2030. Employing his company’s new CO₂ calculator, de Decker estimated business aircraft emissions out to 2050 using forecasts and a 1-percent fuel efficiency gain per year driven by technology advances. De Decker’s calculations are shocking: in 2012, business aviation’s emissions are expected to be 15 million tons, but the allowable limit will be 10.97 million tons; in 2020, 19.52 versus 9.05 million tons; in 2030, 23.63 versus 6.56 million tons; and in 2050, 33.29 versus 1.92 million tons. “To meet the 2050 target will require an improvement in efficiency for the fleet of 8 percent for each year of the next 40 years if we keep on using jet-A,” de Decker told AIN. “That is three to four times the average annual improvement in efficiency we have actually experienced between 1965 and today.”