Just three months after issuing its annual 10-year business jet delivery forecast, Honeywell published a revised and less optimistic forecast. The engine and avionics manufacturer now projects that airframers will deliver 8,400 business jets between 2002 and 2011, 500 units (or 5.6 percent) fewer airplanes than the company forecast in September.
When Honeywell issued its original forecast the company conceded that it did not “reflect the impact of additional unforeseen events such as a major economic shock, fuel crisis or new regulatory issues,” all possible outcomes of the September 11 terrorist attacks in the U.S. Nevertheless, Honeywell told AIN at the time it stood by its forecast.
The revised forecast “reflecting modified economic data, post-September 11” foresees slower growth in business aviation and slightly lower deliveries in the near term but delivery rates recovering to “record levels in 2003 and 2004.” It’s unclear how Honeywell concludes that 2003 and 2004 will be “record levels.” The industry delivered 758 business jets in 2000 and Honeywell is projecting deliveries of only 734 units in 2003, approximately 705 units this year and 750 units last year (final year-end figures for 2001 were not available at press time).
“The demand for business aviation has held up remarkably well, given the rapidly deteriorating post-September 11 economic climate as businesses worldwide recognize the need for improved levels of productivity offered by business aviation aircraft,” said Bob Johnson, president of Honeywell Aerospace. “The continued strength of order backlogs [2,700 aircraft, according to Honeywell], the introduction of new jet models and the exposure of new customers to either charter or fractional aircraft benefits are key factors in the stability and continued strong future of this business,” Johnson said.
Honeywell said that immediately after September 11, interest in air charters increased dramatically, and is up by between 30 and 200 percent over pre-September levels, according to an independent survey. “Fractional operators also experienced an immediate increase in business and are continuing to hire pilots at nearly double the rate experienced in 1999,” Honeywell asserted.
According to AIR Inc., a pilot employment service that also reports hiring statistics for the major fractional operators, pilot hiring last year was double the rate of 1999: about 1,000 frax pilots were hired last year compared with about 580 in 1999. But last year’s total fractional hiring–although high compared with today’s airline rates–was still nearly 30 percent down from the 1,363 in 2000, AIR figures show. AIR also reported eight furloughs last year (all at frax provider Corporate Aircraft Partners, flying Jetstreams), the first time it has reported furloughs in the three years it has been tracking fractional pilot hiring.
Atlanta-based AIR tracks the hiring statistics of the following frax operators: CitationShares, Corporate Aircraft Partners, Flexjet, Flight Options, NetJets and Travel Air.
AIR noted that NetJets was the only one of the six frax operators to hire more pilots last year than in 2000. NetJets was also the only frax operator to hire any pilots in October, according to AIR.
“Our long-term view of business aviation market remains unchanged. A combination of economic recovery, new product value, growth in new demand channels such as fractionals, development of business and general aviation infrastructure in Asia and China and growth of business aviation worldwide all indicate a bright future for the industry,” Johnson added.
