Solid, sustained passenger demand will keep the world's airline fleet growing steadily over the next two decades, while efficiency gains will boost utilization and average aircraft size, multiplying the effects of more aircraft entering service, the latest fleet forecast by Dublin-based lessor Avolon predicts.

Avolon projects the global commercial jet fleet growing from 23,700 aircraft in 2017 to 49,000 in 2036, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.6 percent. New deliveries will total 42,800, including 800 new-production freighters. Single-aisle aircraft will account for 78 percent of deliveries. Operators will park 16,250 aircraft, including 1,800 freighters, while they convert 2,000 in-service models to support growing cargo demand.

Efficiency gains in several areas, including air traffic control and improved fleet planning, will help boost fleet utilization 7 percent, Avolon projects. “Average seat count is expected to rise by 13 percent to 200 seats by 2036, achieved through a combination of up-sizing the mix of aircraft within fleet families and initiatives by OEMs to find ways to increase seat count within existing cabin confines,” the lessor notes.

Among market segments, Avolon sees Airbus and Boeing splitting narrowbody deliveries during the forecast period, despite the A320neo’s production head-start over the 737 Max, as both programs ramp up to what Avolon projects as long production runs. 

The widebody twin market, stabilized by production-rate cuts on the A330 and 777, will support current rates, while Avolon sees “measured” rate increases in the category as a whole in the years ahead, starting with the A330neo in 2018.

The very-large widebody market will not recover, Avolon projects. “The forecast assumes that meaningful passenger production will end in the near future for the 747 and before the middle of the next decade for the A380,” it concludes.

Avolon foresees moderate success for several new programs during the forecast period. It expects 600 deliveries for both the Comac C919 and Irkut MC-21 narrowbodies. Meanwhile, the Mitsubishi MRJ’s persistent setbacks have Avolon projecting “limited” sales of MRJ90s and no stretch version being introduced.

Two more established OEMs, Bombardier and Embraer, face a mix of uncertainty and strong upside, according to Avolon. 

“The [Bombardier] C Series is performing well in service and, assuming that the Airbus deal closes and the U.S. penalty tariff requirement goes away, is now well placed to pick up future orders, although not a mass market contender,” the report notes, adding that the 150-seat CS300 will capture 70 percent of the family’s orders.

Embraer’s E2 sales “have been slower than expected over the past two years and the delivery forecast has been moderated accordingly,” Avolon says. It expects the E175 E2, designed to carry between 80 and 90 passengers, to become the line’s top seller, even if U.S. carriers fail to negotiate relaxation of weight limits in their pilot union scope clauses. The forecast projects demand for 1,800 regional jets carrying fewer than 100 seats.

Avolon’s forecast assumptions include global GDP growth of 2.9 percent, revenue passenger kilometer growth of 5.4 percent and capacity increases of 5.2 percent a year. It forecasts cargo demand to grow at 3.9 percent a year.

The forecast includes both the Western-built passenger and cargo jet aircraft, plus what Avolon calls the main Russian and Chinese entries.