Aviation International News senior correspondent Ian Goold has been involved in aerospace since 1964 and in aviation media for more than 40 years. He enjoyed a 20-year career at Flight International magazine, where he was latterly air-transport editor before turning freelance in 1993. A winner of the European Regions Airline Association Hank McGonagle award for excellence in aerospace journalism and a Royal Aeronautical Society Aerospace Journalist of the Year global&nbsp;award, he has edited or contributed to aerospace and aviation magazines, special publications, and websites in Africa, Asia/Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and North and South America. Ian entered aerospace as an apprentice at the British Aircraft Corporation at Brooklands (Weybridge), where he worked on production and final assembly lines of the Vickers Super VC10, and BAC One-Eleven , and manufacture of Concorde major sub-assemblies. He subsequently graduated from the BAC Design Training School to work in the airframe structures drawing office (including design of international future projects, such as the Panavia Tornado multi-role combat aircraft) before joining Flight International in 1973. Apart from years of reading aircraft magazines and books, his first direct contact with aviation media had come during the early 1970s when he was involved at Brooklands with the Weybridge Man-powered Aircraft Group, which designed and built the tenth aircraft to fly under purely human power. As an aviation journalist, he has worked at more than&nbsp; 50 of the major biennial&nbsp;global and regional international aerospace industry shows at Le Bourget, Farnborough, Singapore, and Dubai (having missed attending only one "Farnborough" since 1960), plus innumerable NBAA, HAI, (U.S.) AOPA, and EBACE Conventions and ERA Assemblies. His favourite aircraft is the Hawker Hunter, of which – as a schoolboy – he heard hundreds make their first flights from Dunsfold, where also on September 24, 2013, he saw the penultimate landing of the VC10 (happily involving an example of which he had witnessed the maiden takeoff in 1970) a day before the last example made the design's final flight (unless, of course....).

Senior correspondent

Ian Goold

Airbus and Boeing are making too many commercial jetliners in a “vicious war” for market share that will continue until the end of the decade, predict analysts at consultancy Teal Group in its new 2005-14 commercial-jetliner forecast. “Across the board, we are in a persistent oversupply situation,” it said in a forecast released today.

According to Teal lead analyst Richard Aboulafia, the fight for a majority market share will “stay neck-in-neck” until 2009, at which point the new Boeing 787 will enter service–albeit after a year’s delay to current schedules. He has concluded that the 767-replacement design has brought Boeing “clearly back into the game,” with a consequent boost to customer confidence helped by the weak U.S. dollar.

Damning the design with faint praise as “not a bad compromise,” Aboulafia characterizes the soon-to-be-launched Airbus A350 as a response to the 787 rather than as a product aimed at meeting similar market requirements. Nevertheless, he rates the A350 as also being an effective competitor against Boeing’s 777-200ER. 

Teal’s forecast, which covers production not orders, takes no account of “a new 747-400 Advanced” and even considers the A380 very large airliner as “much less relevant” to its consideration of upcoming production of commercial jetliners with 100+ seats. However, the forecast does accommodate new composites-construction single-aisle aircraft from both manufacturers.

Teal analysts expect just over 7,250 such aircraft worth nearly $473 billion to be built in the period (see table). This compares with a little over 6,500 such aircraft valued at $415 billion produced in the past 10 years. The forecast assumes 72 percent of the new aircraft will be single-aisle machines accounting for 44 percent of the overall value.

Teal: Airbus and Boeing are locked in a ‘vicious war’ for market share

Airbus and Boeing are making too many commercial jetliners in a “vicious war” for market share that will continue until the end of the decade, predict anal

2024 Corporate Aviation Leadership Summit

Paris Air Show 2005

AIN Products

SUBSCRIPTIONS

RESOURCES

ABOUT AIN