Honeywell’s annual market forecast for civil turbine-powered helicopters released Saturday is still predicting flat to slightly higher deliveries between 2009 and 2013 compared to the previous five-year period, but there are caveats aplenty.
Honeywell (Booth No. 1310) expects overall 2009 delivery levels to be at or near 2008 levels before declining in 2010, but the steepness of the drop and how long it will last is largely unknown “due to the uncertainty of the global economy,” the company said. The trough could last until 2012 and perhaps longer. Honeywell’s forecast also illuminates a present and clear disconnect between OEM production plans and customer purchase expectations and the growth of negative market indicators including a surge in used inventories, weak new order intake and a lack of financing available to buyers. The precipitous drop in new order intake, combined with an increase in delivery cancellations and deferrals, may significantly erode assumed OEM backlogs.
