Morgan Stanley has slashed its initial projected value for the global total addressable market (TAM) for eVTOL aircraft in urban air mobility (UAM) applications by a third. In a report updating its prognosis from December 2018, the investment bank has lowered its anticipated TAM level for 2040 from $1.5 trillion to $1 trillion. But the figure is now expected to rise to $9 trillion by 2050.
The report’s eight-strong research team is not definitively concluding that the UAM gold rush has reached peak excitement or even that a descent into the trough of despair is inevitable. The message from eVTOL/Urban Air Mobility TAM Update: A Slow Take Off, But the Sky’s the Limit seems to be a case of “curb your enthusiasm, and brace for deferred rewards.”
As the analysis gets more granular, it offers significant deviations from earlier projections. For instance, the Morgan Stanley analysts now estimate the 2030 TAM for the U.S. in isolation as being almost 75 percent down at $12 billion (compared with the previous $45 billion). This is a point that might grab the attention of investors who have placed big bets on supposed front runners like Joby Aviation and Archer that have pledged impressive revenue flows starting in 2024.
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