FutureFlight

CAE is the latest established aviation group to sign up as a partner for Jaunt Air Mobility's plans to bring the five-seat Journey aircraft to market by the end of 2026. U.S.-based Jaunt, which recently established a Canadian subsidiary to handle design and manufacturing operations, is also partnered with BAE Systems and Crane Aerospace for power management, and with the Triumph group for aerostructures.

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Wright Electric aims to develop a propulsion system that could be all-electric, hybrid-electric, or hydrogen-powered, and able to support plans for a single-aisle airliner. The company has had early discussions with airlines including low-cost carrier EasyJet and is open to making its propulsion technology available to an airframer wanting to bring a new aircraft into commercial service with up to around 186 seats.

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The details about how the Biden administration may help to create a positive environment for the advanced air mobility market remain unclear. But venture capitalist Ben Marcus believes that the new transportation mode will bring benefits across the United States, though plenty of work needs to be done to turn theory into practice.

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Vancouver, on Canada's Pacific coast, is set to be an early adopter of advanced air mobility services and is the main focus of a project to develop automated air traffic management infrastructure to support eVTOL flights. Germany's D3 Technologies aims to create "digital roads" for the new aircraft, using its automation and data communications systems.

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Collins Aerospace, formed in 2018 when UTC Technologies acquired Rockwell Collins, has broad capabilities spanning avionics, flight control systems, autopilots, and electric propulsion. So far, its main engagement with the advanced air mobility sector has been through contributing communications and connectivity technology to programs focused on air traffic management challenges for new manned and unmanned aircraft. It also offers lightweight electromechanical actuators that can be scaled to fit eVTOL aircraft.

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Once Regent's seaglider enters the water, the vehicle takes off and glides above the surface at speeds of up to 180 mph. The Boston-based company, which has raised $9 million in seed funding, has built a one-quarter-scale prototype of the wing-in-ground-effect vehicle and intends to start testing this before the end of 2021. The vehicle will be certified under International Maritime Organization rules.

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On the Radar
Morgan Stanley Downgrades Early Estimates of Urban Air Mobility Market Size

Morgan Stanley has slashed its initial projected value for the global total addressable market (TAM) for eVTOL aircraft in urban air mobility (UAM) applications by a third. In a report updating its prognosis from December 2018, the investment bank has lowered its anticipated TAM level for 2040 from $1.5 trillion to $1 trillion. But the figure is now expected to rise to $9 trillion by 2050.

The report’s eight-strong research team is not definitively concluding that the UAM gold rush has reached peak excitement or even that a descent into the trough of despair is inevitable. The message from eVTOL/Urban Air Mobility TAM Update: A Slow Take Off, But the Sky’s the Limit seems to be a case of “curb your enthusiasm, and brace for deferred rewards.”

As the analysis gets more granular, it offers significant deviations from earlier projections. For instance, the Morgan Stanley analysts now estimate the 2030 TAM for the U.S. in isolation as being almost 75 percent down at $12 billion (compared with the previous $45 billion). This is a point that might grab the attention of investors who have placed big bets on supposed front runners like Joby Aviation and Archer that have pledged impressive revenue flows starting in 2024.

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Urban Air mobility

It's been 13 months since the AIN/FutureFlight team produced this video about prospects for new eVTOL aircraft supporting a viable urban air mobility market. So much has happened in the industry since then, and it's fascinating to reflect on what our expert interviewees were telling us at the time. The video has just been shortlisted for the "Best Digital Submission" category in the 2021 Aerospace Media Awards. It was produced by Ian Whelan, who leads AIN's video news team. 

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Featured Program

Neoptera has been developing the eOpter as a four-seat aircraft with a view to achieving type certification in 2026.

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Featured Person
Ben Marcus
 

Ben Marcus is co-founder and managing partner of venture capital group Up.Partners. He started the company in May 2020 with his business partner Cyrus Sigari, with whom he previous ran private jet sales group JetAviva. He is also co-founder and chairman of unmanned aircraft airspace management specialist AirMap. Earlier in his career, Marcus was a flight test engineer and also a member of the sales team with very light jet manufacturer Eclipse Aviation.

He holds a bachelor's degree in aviation technology from Purdue University and an airline transport pilot's license and is a flight instructor and a remote pilot for unmanned aircraft.

UPCOMING EVENTS
 
September 7 - 8, 2021 / Farnborough, GB

Farnborough International will stage the 2021 edition of the new Global Urban & Advanced Air Mobility Summit at the Farnborough air show site in the UK.

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