Search the Securities and Exchange Commission filings for any of the eVTOL aircraft developers that have chased capital injections via a Wall Street listing and you’ll find lengthy assessments of the multitudinous risks facing those racing toward the loudly self-promoting advanced air mobility (AAM) sector. But how many people read all the caveat-laden, backside-covering small print in the hope of getting an objective assessment of risk variables?
This week, the Swiss consulting firm Orbit Management Services is publishing its first annual AAM Risk Report based on input from almost 160 industry insiders and independent observers. These sources were interviewed between June and early August and have not been identified in order to allow them to comment candidly.
The 26-page report assesses multiple risk categories, including technological, economic, social, political, regulatory, and environmental. It also includes a useful glossary defining in some detail the various risk factors.
In a nutshell, the Orbit report seeks to manage the feverish expectations regarding the anticipated launch of commercial air services in 2025, with a “not so fast” neutral assessment of AAM’s short-term prospects. “Passenger applications [i.e., air taxis] face pessimistic prospects due to concerns regarding technology and regulatory risks,” say the Orbit report authors. “In contrast, logistics [i.e., freight] and enterprise applications [e.g., emergency medical services] show a more optimistic view, despite risks related to airspace integration, regulatory delays, and battery technology limitations.”
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