Would-be manufacturers of aircraft in what is broadly defined as the advanced air mobility (AAM) sector advance their cheerleading efforts with a relentless flow of sales commitments for products that remain anywhere between the drawing board and type certification. The deals announced are variously described as “orders” or “letters of intent,” but almost without exception, it is next to impossible to assess the solidity of these supposed transactions due to a lack of transparency by the companies announcing them.
In a new report, the McKinsey consulting firm has tried to quantify the prospective backlog of orders in what it chooses to define as the future air mobility sector. This category includes the attention-seeking eVTOL models, as well as planned supersonic aircraft, cargo drones, and what the authors broadly describe as sustainable aviation (presumably anything powered by something other than a fossil-fuel-only powertrain).
According to McKinsey’s number crunchers, as of June 9, more than 18,000 orders had been placed for aircraft in these categories with a total provisional value of $111 billion. This sum, they concluded, is more than the total global backlog for commercial airliners of 16,500 aircraft (including 14,300 firm orders and 2,200 options).
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